There was an appalling sense of inevitability
about the death of Benazir Bhutto at an election
rally in Rawalpindi. The risk she had taken in
returning to Pakistan was brutally apparent from
the moment her plane touched down. The failed
attempt on her life during the interminable
procession that day showed how inadequate her
protection would be if she continued her
campaign. That she did so nonetheless showed
admirable, if perhaps foolhardy, courage. An
accursed symmetry had it that she died in the
same garrison city where her deposed father was
executed. Her quest to avenge his death and
return elected government to Pakistan came to
naught.
Ms
Bhutto had powerful enemies, and there were
damaging accusations against her: of corruption,
nepotism and entitlement. But there could be no
doubting either her sense of personal destiny or
the seriousness with which she plied her
politics. While lineage played its part, she was
one of the first women to be elected prime
minister of an Islamic country. The gamble she
took in accepting the deal President Musharraf
offered her – an end to exile, an election
campaign and, if her People's Party won, the
prime ministership was not an unreasonable one
for her to make. When she, rightly, broke with
Mr Musharraf over his failure to lift martial
law, she took the more difficult course. Rather
than returning to exile, she stayed to fight.
Those hopes now appear wildly unrealistic. But
if, with the false wisdom of hindsight,
yesterday's assassination seemed inevitable, the
consequences can only be unpredictable and
highly dangerous. It seems unlikely that any of
the gains of recent months can be maintained.
Disturbances broke out in cities across Pakistan
within minutes of the announcement of Ms
Bhutto's death. The language of martyrdom in
which her assassination was condemned bespoke
conflict and bloodshed to come.
These will be perilous days for Pakistan. The
return to civilian rule and the parliamentary
elections, now less than two weeks away, are
both surely threatened. Mr Musharraf's position
is as shaky as it has been since he seized
power. His call for calm "so that the nefarious
designs of terrorists can be defeated" smacked
of desperation, the national security card ever
the last resort of the weak leader. And even if,
as is probable, he had no part whatever in her
death, there will be many among her supporters
who will believe he did.
As
the urgent words of tribute and warning showed
yesterday, however, Ms Bhutto's assassination
will reverberate far beyond her native land. The
United States, and to a lesser extent Britain,
had encouraged Ms Bhutto to return in the
expectation that she would be Pakistan's next
Prime Minister. They envisaged her as a
moderating and pro-Western force in a country
where Islamic extremism is never far from the
surface. They hoped an electoral mandate would
bring stability. At a time when the Taliban are
advancing in Afghanistan, violence still plagues
Iraq, and Iran's intentions are uncertain, new
volatility in the region can be in no one's
interests. Benazir Bhutto might not have been
able, as she aspired, to save Pakistan for
democracy, but now she will not have the chance.